10 Minute Forecast
Below you will find a short overview and the links to my 10 Minute Forecast. A key factor to making an effective and efficient forecast is having good structure to follow, and doing it the same way every time.
Nws 7 Day Forecast
Put your local meteorologist to good use. They’re following the local weather 24/7 and so are a great place to start. You look for the overall picture of what the weather is forecast to do over the next few days.
* Be sure to put your local airport into the search box in the top left to get the local weather and pertinent links .
3 Day History
This is what meteorologist call a meteogram, which shows you historic data up to the present time. There is nothing better to see actual trends in the local conditions, such as changes in winds or ceiling. The updates are often 20 minutes and so give you a more fine-tune look at what the weather is doing.
*Your 3 day history link will be on the right hand side of the NWS 7 Day forecast page abeam the local current temperature.
hourly weather forecast
This shows you what the conditions are forecast to do over the next 48 hours. It is also described as a forecast meteogram, as it continues on from the current conditions to the forecast of what conditions are expected. This tool is really reliable over the 24 to 48 hour period.
*Your Hourly Weather Forecast link will be on the right hand side of the NWS 7 Day forecast page abeam the local current temperature, and below the 3 Day History Link.
Prognostic Charts
Otherwise know as Prog Charts, these charts show the forecast for large scale features, and are used to get the big picture on what is driving the weather. Look for high and low pressure systems, and for fronts, watching how they move and develop.
*Found on the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER page.
Winds and Temps Aloft
These charts show you forecast winds over a large area, and can be viewed from the surface up to to 48000 feet. Above 3000ft AGL the forecast winds are very accurate, but as you get close to the complexities of the earths surface, they are better used as a guideline of general flow.
*Found on the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER page.
Satellite Imagery
There are many tools and views available with satellite imagery that show much insight into what the weather is doing. Yet again we are looking for observed trends in what the cloud formations are doing, using visible, Infrared, and water-vapor modes.
*Found on the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER page.
Radar
Radar imagery shows what precipitation is in the area, which allows you to see how the weather is developing. When animated you can see the dynamics of the weather from type of system, movement and direction, changes in intensity, and all the secondary attributes that are part of different systems, be it summer-time thunderstorms or winter snow. It is important not to forget that radar will not show clouds, only areas of precipitation.
*Found on the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER page.
METAR & TAF
METARs and TAFs are a staple of a local forecast. METARs update on the hour which give you a good general weather trend at an airport. TAFs are a forecast created by a local forecaster, and give you great insight built on their local knowledge.
*Found on the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER page.
Forecast Discussion
These discussion are created by the local forecaster, giving you insight into their thoughts, process, and confidence in the local weather forecast .You can glean the nuances, and intensity of the weather systems they are reporting on. Each forecaster initials the bottom of the discussion page, so with time you can get to know your local meteorologist.
*Your Forecast Discussion link will be midway down the NWS 7 Day forecast page under Additional Forecasts and Information.
To Sum Up
The goal is to keep it short and to the point, use observations as much as possible, and lean on your local meteorologist, fine-tuning their forecast with your knowledge of weather theory and preflight experience peering into the “crystal ball.”